Much of Texas has had above-average temperatures since the holidays, but National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists warn that cold air could return temperatures to more usual levels for this time of year, with snow also likely.
The forecast comes after Texas had an unusually warm Christmas weekend. Temperatures in Texas typically reach their lowest point in January, and while historic surges of cold air have produced dangerous circumstances in the state in previous years, temperatures in Texas and much of the rest of the country have recently been above average.
Above-average temperatures are expected to persist throughout midweek, but by Thursday, Texans may expect a shift in the weather pattern. According to the NWS office in Amarillo’s long-term prediction, a cold front will approach from the northwest, bringing lower temperatures and higher winds.
“Modest moisture pooled behind the front combined with near/sub freezing temperatures could be enough to allow areas of snow or a rain-snow mix to develop through the day Friday, favoring the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle at this time,” NWS Amarillo said in the forecast.
“Any potential amounts are still up in the air, but probabilistic and ensemble outputs favor lighter snow amounts at this time, which makes sense considering the very marginal temperature profiles being forecast. Any shifts in the systems track or timing could greatly impact this forecast, along with temperature profiles needed for snow to develop.”
Although snow rarely falls in South Texas, winter weather is common in North Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The typical snowfall for the winter season in Amarillo is 7.6 inches, but NWS Amarillo meteorologist Christian Rangel told Newsweek that the area has only received.2 inches, which came from a single snow event on December 3.
“[Snowfall has] been low because of a prevailing weather pattern that’s been over a large part of the nation this past month and into January,” Rangel said. “High pressure sits over a large area of the U.S., so it’s going to keep temperatures warmer and decrease precipitation chances. Even if we do get precipitation, so far it’s only been in the form of rain.”
if of Monday afternoon, no winter weather watches or warnings were in effect in Texas, though meteorologists may issue official alerts if snow approaches.
Weather changes are forecast throughout the state. The National Weather Service in Houston cautioned that rain could fall in southeast Texas on Thursday and Friday, followed by windy weather and colder temperatures. According to the Chron, temperatures in the Houston area may drop this weekend, but not much.
Looking forward, the NWS Climate Prediction Center predicts above-average temperatures in the Texas panhandle from January 10 to January 14, with equally likely above- or below-average temperatures in the state’s southern half over the same time period.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s eight- to 10-day forecast predicts a modest likelihood of above-average temperatures throughout the state.