November is shaping up to be an active month for severe weather, with meteorologists warning that shifting seasonal trends may bring an increased tornado risk to regions of the South, Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley.
Storm chaser Adam Lucio provided a revised tornado risk assessment for November, highlighting potential hazard zones where cold northern air meets residual Gulf moisture—a volatile combination that has produced deadly late-season tornadoes.
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According to Lucio’s analysis, states such as Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and parts of Illinois and Missouri stand an increased risk this month. His chart divides regions into “Possible” and “Greater” risk zones based on climatology data from The Weather Channel’s 30-year records.
“November is no stranger to significant tornado events,” Lucio explained. “The jet stream becomes more energized as it settles southward for winter, creating a setup that can produce outbreaks spanning multiple states and dozens of tornadoes in a single day.”
Southern States See Greater Threat
The “Greater” danger zone covers areas surrounding Dallas, New Orleans, and central Mississippi, which have a history of high tornado frequency in late October. According to Lucio, while cold air makes it more difficult to drive deep Gulf moisture north, southern systems can still produce catastrophic storms and long-track tornadoes.
Weather systems in November also tend to move faster and dig deeper, resulting in “bomb cyclone” characteristics—powerful, rapidly forming low-pressure systems capable of causing widespread wind and thunderstorm damage.
Midwest Not Out of Danger
While the Deep South usually suffers the brunt of November tornadoes, regions of the Midwest, such as southern Illinois, Missouri, and western Kentucky, remain dangerous.
Much of this region is labeled as “Possible” on the map, indicating a history of secondary tornado seasons in late October. Cities like St. Louis and Memphis have also experienced devastating tornadoes in previous Novembers.
“Even though the cold air starts to dominate northward, the right storm setup can still trigger violent tornadoes in the Midwest,” Lucio said.
Why November Tornadoes Are So Dangerous
Meteorologists warn fall tornadoes can be especially dangerous due to fewer daylight hours and greater human density in affected areas.
These late-season storms often arrive after sundown, lowering visibility and warning time. When combined with fast-moving weather systems, midnight tornadoes are particularly destructive.
In Illinois, for example, the 2013 Washington tornado outbreak, which occurred in mid-November, remains one of the most deadly in recent memory, killing eight people and destroying more than 1,000 homes.
Staying Prepared
The National Weather Service recommends individuals in high-risk states evaluate their severe weather preparations, listen to NOAA weather radios, and keep an eye out for shifting forecasts.
Lucio stressed the importance of raising awareness beyond traditional “tornado alley.”
“People think tornado season ends after spring, but that’s not true,” he said. “November is one of those months that can surprise people — especially when warm Gulf air lingers longer than expected.”
Residents are asked to remain attentive, especially during severe cold fronts and storm system passages, as much of the central United States is expected to experience tornadoes this month.
